The paper contributes to the methodology of linear programming applications to the optimal risk management. It is suggested to model two-stage decision making processes (before and after instantiation of stochastic, e.g. weather, parameters) using empirical distributions of stochastic parameters. This ensures that the resulting production programme does not suffer from resource shortages under any instantiation of the stochastic parameters within the linear combination of actually observed instantiations.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.115:512.711.3.

The marginal product of arable land and grassland is estimated by a shadow price parameterization. The shadow prices are obtained from multiple runs of a linear programming model of the Moscow region land market that randomly uses varying crop yields. The marginal product of land approximates the possible rental price of agricultural land from 2001-2003 under the assumption of a properly functioning land market. In 2003, this value (for arable land) varied from 290 to 1,309 roubles, depending on distance from Moscow and soil fertility. Higher crop yields negatively influence the marginal land product values. There is a declining trend of these values during the studied period, which impedes emerging market institutions.
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A shorter presentation of findings published in (155)
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A conference edition of (145).
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The preferences of corporate agricultural farms of Moscow region are approached by the instrumentality of data envelopment model. The hypothesized neoclassical behaviour (short-term profit maximization) is rejected in favour of Baumol's revenue maximizing model. The topmost factor constraining revenue is shortage of machinery.
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The results from dynamic DEA modeling of Moscow region corporate farms during 1995-2004. The following is concluded. The major source of inefficiency is a suboptimal input-output mix. One of the reasons for that is transitional markets volatility. Technical inefficiency is minor and mostly due to congestion problems. During the specified period the limiting factor of efficiency changed from the lack of liquidity to the lack of working power. There is an evidence of higher innovational capacities of larger corporate farms. Resources scarcity was found to improve the efficiency. Soft and too hard budget constraints simultaneously hamper the studied farms efficiency.
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A detailed summary in English.
The first draft of the paper in PDF.

The corporate farm size determinants are studied by the instrumentality of the dynamic DEA model from (166), which was re-estimated after fixing the identified data errors. The results suggest positive dependence of efficiency on size, which is not only due to the wider growth opportunities of highly efficient farms; return to scale is found to be volatile, thus hardly affecting managers' decisions concerning farm size; the best-practice farms (in terms of dynamic efficiency) keep growing, while others shrink their size.
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Determinants of the Moscow region corporate farms dynamic efficiency are studied by the instrumentality of the dynamic DEA model from (166), which was re-estimated after fixing the identified data errors. The studied period is 1996-2004. The major limitation of dynamic efficiency was proved to be sources of production costs financing in 1996 and lack of labour later on, in contrast to a body of studies which argue labour-abundance of Russian corporate farms. The expected effect of increased labour supply is the greatest in the least efficient corporate farms (in terms of dynamic efficiency).
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It is proposed to use Markovitz model to distribute investment resources between portfolio investments and projects.
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178.

Testing impact of return to scale on the efficiency of agricultural production

abst.

Nikonov lectures-2008: The role of innovations in development of agro-industrial complex. Moscow: VIAPI; Enciklopediia rossiiskikh dereven', 2008. – p. 252-254.

6

Sergei A. Kudriashov

Methodology developed in (166) is used to demonstrate insignificance of returns to scale for the economic efficiency of corporate farms in Moscow region. Scale effects are significant only for the technical efficiency in a short run, which plays a minor role in overall capabilities of improving economic efficiency.
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 The results of approving the approach described in (74) are reported.  The application is developing annual production programme for JSC Agrofirma Fediukovo in Podolsk rayon of Moscow oblast.
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Opportunities are discovered that contribute into improving competitiveness of agro-industrial sector of Russian economy by means of state support of investment risk hedging combined with diversification of investments.
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Abstract of  (191) (published separately).
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See (190) for description.
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The study is similar to (191). An important difference is that allocatively efficient farms are excluded from analysis of internal transaction costs (ITC). Allocative efficiency and ITC are shown to correlate negatively.
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A set of dynamic DEA models is applied to investigate the determinants of farm size of Moscow oblast corporate farms in the period 1996-2004. New institutional economics is found to be more relevant to explaining farm sizes and their changes than the neo-classical framework. The results prove the hypothesis that the development of farm size is mainly caused by reducing transaction costs associated with getting access to product markets.
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Annotation of the presentation (208) at Shatalin seminar.
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A shortened version of (193) presented at Nikonov lectures-2009.
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The methodology of measuring internal transaction costs (ITC) is enriched with using arctangential averaging of ITC throughout a sample. The calculations are performed for 1998 and 2005-2007. The hypotheses are supported that the evolution of fams' internal institutions slowed down since 2005 and that ITC per unit of a major output positively correlate to farm sizes.
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A journal version of  (191).
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The paper presents the earliest findings in the methodology and estimations of internal transaction costs by means of the micro-economic DEA model. These results were further elaborated in (193) è (198).
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A shorter version of (198). In comparison to (198), the description of the theoretical model is omitted, the reasoning of conclusions is extended.
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A system dynamics model is developed that allows for retirement of assets after bankruptcies. The aim of the model is to select hypotheses about influence of assets' retirement on economic growth and inflation under restrictive monetary policies. The core of the model consists of relations between mean profitability (variance is fixed) and increment of money in turnover; between credit issue and economic growth; between profitability and bankruptcy.
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The paper develops a microeconomic methodological framework that allows approaching subsidy allocation across the types of assets and impact of subsidies on agricultural outputs and profits. The methodology is based on a non-parametric production frontier estimation. The empirical application is made to 1084 Belarusian corporate farms. The results suggest targeting governmental support at grain and milk production. In this case, 4.14 trillion Belarusian roubles of subsidies increase the overall profit of the sample farms by 1.46 trillion. In the case of targeting, the farms with higher overall efficiency are more sensitive to the support and are able to absorb larger amount of subsidies. The opposite is true in the absence of targeting.
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The estimates of internal transaction costs (ITC) using data of 1998 and 2005…2007 from Moscow oblast corporate farms are presented. Compared to (198), several minor bugs are found and fixed in calculations. Both theoretical and empirical models are revised so to make them simpler and implying conditions for stronger estimates. Absence of significantly positive institutional changes is supported, whereas in short run (2005-2009) there is an evidence of negative changes. It is confirmed that larger farms face larger ITC. The influence of ITC on allocative efficiency is found negative, except 1998 when the results are indefinite. Higher technical efficiency implies higher ITC.
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A journal version of  (212).
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Mathematical models that are used in food security studies are reviewed. The methodologies are suggested applicable to unsolved problems related to food security, such as estimation of comparative competitiveness of a national agricultural sector, forecasting of production and consumption balance of food resources, modeling relations between food supplying branches and other sectors of national economy, modeling international food and agricultural resources exchange, development of ecology-economic models, modeling optimal governmental support. 
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A brief report on a method of reproducing institutional evolution by means of a simple system dynamics model. The regimes are found in which institutions can co-exist that generate different transaction costs burdens depending on economic activity scale.
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The paper delivers the results of (212) to Belarusian and Russian readers.
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The system dynamics model of growing economy consisting of several populations characterized by the population-specific dependence of transaction costs and social inequality on economic activity scale indicators is studied. It is found that such model reproduces basic characteristics of competition between different institutional settings, like co-existence of different settings (particularly, infinitely long existence of settings which are ‘strictly worse’ than their competitors), faster growth of ‘the worst’ setting in the short-term period, break-even (catastrophical) population changes of settings.
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ДFor the purpose of understanding the nature of Kondratiev waves it is suggested to represent the long-term dynamics of gross production as a random value, which is a sum of four independent components: purely random, trend, effect of the lagged values and regulation.
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The paper presents the experience of developing a stochastic two-stage model of one-year production program of a dairy corporate farm located in the Moscow oblast, which secures feasibility of the plan under weather conditions of two worst years actually observed.
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A mathematical model of optimal debt service of a corporate farm is proposed allowing for re-financing the debt. Simulations on this model make it possible to estimate probability of insolvency.
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A set of routines is developed for decision support systems in the area of state budget financing of activities, which are aimed at improving competitiveness of agro-industrial complex in financial markets via reducing investment risks. Estimated  the parameters of the state support for a set of projects recommended for implementation in the Krasnodar region.
Access: on-line, PDF document of the journal site. UDC 330.45:336.648.8.

An econometric model is developed and econometrically justified that explains long waves of economic conjuncture, which show up in total yields of grain on the territory of the former USSR, with presence of lagged negative feedback in making investment decisions.
Access: on-line, PDF document. UDC [338.12.015+338.12.017]:633.1:330.46.

Non-parametric production frontier models of Russian corporate farms, family farms and household plots are developed using regional (oblast) level data. Price growth is found to stimulate production on household plots to a larger extent than on corporate farms. Soaring grain prices are able to cause decreasing production of other agricultural outputs. Additional input of mineral fertilizers, compared to fixed assets, stimulates larger capital value growth on corporate farms (per rouble of input). Family farms are the best place to capitalize agricultural land, while corporate farms demonstrate advantages in capitalizing cattle.
Because of numerous publisher's flaws, please use the author's version of the paper rather than the published one. Thank you.
Access: on-line, PDF document. UDC 338.43.001:631.15:658.589.

© N. Svetlov, 2006-2012.
May 3, 2012.