Papers on mathematical modelling of agricultural production (published after 2006)

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154. Complete utilization of information principle applied to stochastic two-stage linear programmes publ. Proceedings of the International scientific conference (December 2004): Issue 13: Russian state agricultural university - Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, Faculty of Economic Theory, pp.156-160.


The paper contributes to the methodology of linear programming applications to the optimal risk management. It is suggested to model two-stage decision making processes (before and after instantiation of stochastic, e.g. weather, parameters) using empirical distributions of stochastic parameters. This ensures that the resulting production programme does not suffer from resource shortages under any instantiation of the stochastic parameters within the linear combination of actually observed instantiations.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.115:512.711.3.
155. How large is the marginal product of land in the Moscow region? publ. Agriculture in the face of changing markets, institutions and policies: challenges and strategies: Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe, Vol. 33, IAMO, Halle (Saale), Germany, 2006. - pp.381-395.


Natalia V. Il'ina
The marginal product of arable land and grassland is estimated by a shadow price parameterization. The shadow prices are obtained from multiple runs of a linear programming model of the Moscow region land market that randomly uses varying crop yields. The marginal product of land approximates the possible rental price of agricultural land from 2001-2003 under the assumption of a properly functioning land market. In 2003, this value (for arable land) varied from 290 to 1,309 roubles, depending on distance from Moscow and soil fertility. Higher crop yields negatively influence the marginal land product values. There is a declining trend of these values during the studied period, which impedes emerging market institutions.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in English). Alternative access: at IAMO site.
158. Estimation of land rent value in the Moscow region publ. Nikonov lectures-2006: Large and small business in agriculture: trends, problems, outlook of development


Natalia V. Il'ina
A shorter presentation of findings published in (155)
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian).
162. Factors constraining efficiency of Russian corporate farms: The case of the Moscow region CD publ. IAAE2006-Australia: Conference papers / IAAE. Gold Coast, Australia, 2006. 15 Heinrich Hockmann
A conference edition of (145).
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English). Alternative access: at AgEcon site (Univ. of Minnesota).
165. Factors of corporate farms motivation: competition versus oligopoly publ. Sustainable development as a key factor of social and economic stability in Russia: Proceedings of the 2nd All-Russian congress of agricultural economists, February 13-15, 2006. Moscow: Rosinformagrotekh, 2006. - vol.2, p.3-7. 13  
The preferences of corporate agricultural farms of Moscow region are approached by the instrumentality of data envelopment model. The hypothesized neoclassical behaviour (short-term profit maximization) is rejected in favour of Baumol's revenue maximizing model. The topmost factor constraining revenue is shortage of machinery.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian).
166. Long-term efficiency of the Moscow region corporate farms during transition (evidence from dynamic DEA) online
Chinese Economists Society European conference in Slovenia ‘Economic transition in midlife: lessons from the development of markets and institutions’, May 11-14, 2007. Portorož, Slovenia. 37  Heinrich Hockmann
The results from dynamic DEA modeling of Moscow region corporate farms during 1995-2004. The following is concluded. The major source of inefficiency is a suboptimal input-output mix. One of the reasons for that is transitional markets volatility. Technical inefficiency is minor and mostly due to congestion problems. During the specified period the limiting factor of efficiency changed from the lack of liquidity to the lack of working power. There is an evidence of higher innovational capacities of larger corporate farms. Resources scarcity was found to improve the efficiency. Soft and too hard budget constraints simultaneously hamper the studied farms efficiency.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English). Alternative access: the site of Chinese Economists Society (MS Word document).
A detailed summary in English.
The first draft of the paper in PDF.
167. Corporate farm size determinants in transitional economy: the case of the Moscow region online
102th EAAE seminar ‘Superlarge farming companies: Emergence and possible impact’: May 17-18, 2007. Moscow, Russia. 17  
The corporate farm size determinants are studied by the instrumentality of the dynamic DEA model from (166), which was re-estimated after fixing the identified data errors. The results suggest positive dependence of efficiency on size, which is not only due to the wider growth opportunities of highly efficient farms; return to scale is found to be volatile, thus hardly affecting managers' decisions concerning farm size; the best-practice farms (in terms of dynamic efficiency) keep growing, while others shrink their size.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English). Alternative access: at AgEcon Search.

Dynamic DEA model applied to the problem of resource capacity utilization in agriculture

abst. Len'kov I.I., ed. Modeled programs of restructuring and development of economy: Proceedings of 4th international scientific conference (June 21-23, 2007). Minsk, Byelorussia, 2007, p.37-43. 8  
Determinants of the Moscow region corporate farms dynamic efficiency are studied by the instrumentality of the dynamic DEA model from (166), which was re-estimated after fixing the identified data errors. The studied period is 1996-2004. The major limitation of dynamic efficiency was proved to be sources of production costs financing in 1996 and lack of labour later on, in contrast to a body of studies which argue labour-abundance of Russian corporate farms. The expected effect of increased labour supply is the greatest in the least efficient corporate farms (in terms of dynamic efficiency).
: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).

Portfolio investment management by the instrumentality of mathematical modelling

abst. Collection of students' papers: Issue 13. Moscow, Russian State Agricultural University, 2007, p.320-323. 8 Anastasia S. Arkhipova
It is proposed to use Markovitz model to distribute investment resources between portfolio investments and projects.
: libraries only (in Russian).

Micro-economic analysis of long-term efficiency of corporate farms

publ. Russia being changed. Agrarian reforms in the beginning of XXI century: results and outlook. Proceedings of Russian independent agricultural economists association. Issue 12. Moscow: Rosinformagrotech publ., 2008, vol.1, p.108-122. 11  
The results that are similar to (168) are presented in a more detailed form.
: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).

178. Testing impact of return to scale on the efficiency of agricultural production abst.

Nikonov lectures-2008: The role of innovations in development of agro-industrial complex. Moscow: VIAPI; Enciklopediia rossiiskikh dereven', 2008. – p. 252-254.

6 Sergei A. Kudriashov

Methodology developed in (166) is used to demonstrate insignificance of returns to scale for the economic efficiency of corporate farms in Moscow region. Scale effects are significant only for the technical efficiency in a short run, which plays a minor role in overall capabilities of improving economic efficiency.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
179. A stochastic two-stage model of short-term production programming allowing for the extremal conditions  abst. Collection of students' papers: Issue 14. Moscow, Russian State Agricultural University, 2008, p. 327-331. 5 Nadezhda V. Karpuzova
 The results of approving the approach described in (74) are reported.  The application is developing annual production programme for JSC Agrofirma Fediukovo in Podolsk rayon of Moscow oblast.
Access: libraries only (in Russian).
185. Methodology of controlling investment risks for the purpose of improving competitiveness of AIC on the capital market archived manuscript

The manuscript is archived in CIiTEIAgroprom, reg. No 2 VS-2009.

73 Anastasia S. Arkhipova
Opportunities are discovered that contribute into improving competitiveness of agro-industrial sector of Russian economy by means of state support of investment risk hedging combined with diversification of investments.
Access: CIiTEIAgroprom only (Moscow, Russia). In Russian.
190. Estimating internal transaction costs: case of dairy corporate farms in Moscow oblast of Russia  abst.

IAMO Forum 2009: 20 years of transition in agriculture: What has been achieved? Where are we heading?: Conference proceedings: Abstracts. IAMO, 2009. - p.9.

Abstract of  (191) (published separately).
Access: on-line, HTML document (in English).
191. Estimating internal transaction costs: case of dairy corporate farms in Moscow oblast of Russia  CD publ.

Conference proceedings: 20 years of transition in agriculture: What has been achieved? Where are we heading?: 17-19 June 2009. Halle (Saale), Germany: IAMO, 2009.

See (190) for description.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English).
193. Sensitivity of dairy farms to market signals  Publ.

Economics of Russian Agriculture [Ekonomika sel'skogo khoziaistva Rossii], 2009, No 8, p.78-86.

The study is similar to (191). An important difference is that allocatively efficient farms are excluded from analysis of internal transaction costs (ITC). Allocative efficiency and ITC are shown to correlate negatively.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
194. Optimal farm size in Russian agriculture  Online publ.

Contributed Paper presented at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Beijing, China, August 16-22, 2009.

19 Heinrich Hockmann
A set of dynamic DEA models is applied to investigate the determinants of farm size of Moscow oblast corporate farms in the period 1996-2004. New institutional economics is found to be more relevant to explaining farm sizes and their changes than the neo-classical framework. The results prove the hypothesis that the development of farm size is mainly caused by reducing transaction costs associated with getting access to product markets.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English). Alternative access: at AgEconSearch
195. A simulation model of credit issue abst.

System modeling of social and economic processes: Annotations of presentations at the 32nd international scientific seminar, Vologda, October 5-10, 2009. Voronezh, Publishing centre of Voronezh state university, 2009. - p. 159.

Annotation of the presentation (208) at Shatalin seminar.
on-line, HTML document (both in English and Russian).
197. Internal transaction costs on corporate farm producers of dairy milk abst.

Agriculture in the modern economy: a new role, grow factors, risks. Moscow: VIAPI; Enciklopediia rossiiskikh dereven', 2009. – p. 378-380.  

A shortened version of (193) presented at Nikonov lectures-2009.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
198. How to measure institutions? Experience of econometric estimation of internal transaction costs in agriculture publ.

Institutional economics: development, teaching, application: Proceedings of the international conference. Issue 1. Moscow: State University of Management, 2009. – P. 144-153.

The methodology of measuring internal transaction costs (ITC) is enriched with using arctangential averaging of ITC throughout a sample. The calculations are performed for 1998 and 2005-2007. The hypotheses are supported that the evolution of fams' internal institutions slowed down since 2005 and that ITC per unit of a major output positively correlate to farm sizes.
PDF document (in Russian).
199. Estimating internal transaction costs: the case of  corporate dairy farms in Russia's Moscow oblast publ.

Agrarwirtschaft, 2009, 58(8), p. 346-353   

A journal version of  (191).
Access: libraries only (in English).
202. Measuring internal transaction costs of corporate farms specialized on dairy milk production publ.

Problems of economic growth and competitiveness of Russian agriculture: Proceedings of the 3rd All-Russian congress of agricultural economists: February 9-10, 2009. Moscow, Rosinformagrotekh, 2009, p. 355-359.

The paper presents the earliest findings in the methodology and estimations of internal transaction costs by means of the micro-economic DEA model. These results were further elaborated in (193) č (198).
on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
207. Econometric approach to institutional changes in the Moscow oblast dairy corporate farms publ.

Proceedings of XIV International scientific and practical conference of Russian independent scientific agricultural economics society (April 23-24, 2010). Issue 14: Theoretical and methodological base and practice of innovation development of AIC (Nemchinov lectures). Kazan, Moscow, , 2010. –  Vol.2, p.44-51.

A shorter version of (198). In comparison to (198), the description of the theoretical model is omitted, the reasoning of conclusions is extended.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian)
208. A simulation model of credit issue abst.

System modeling of social and economic processes: Proceedings of the 32nd international scientific seminar, Vologda, October 5-10, 2009 / V.G. Grebennikov, I.N. Shchepina, V.N. Eitingon, eds. Voronezh, Publishing centre of Voronezh state university, 2009. - vol.2, p.370-372.

A system dynamics model is developed that allows for retirement of assets after bankruptcies. The aim of the model is to select hypotheses about influence of assets' retirement on economic growth and inflation under restrictive monetary policies. The core of the model consists of relations between mean profitability (variance is fixed) and increment of money in turnover; between credit issue and economic growth; between profitability and bankruptcy.
on-line, HTML document (in Russian).
212. A Microeconomic Model for Subsidies Allocation: the Case of Belarus CD publ.

Conference proceedings: Institutions in Transition – Challenges for New Modes of Governance: 16-18 June 2010. Halle (Saale), Germany

18 Iryna Kazakevich
The paper develops a microeconomic methodological framework that allows approaching subsidy allocation across the types of assets and impact of subsidies on agricultural outputs and profits. The methodology is based on a non-parametric production frontier estimation. The empirical application is made to 1084 Belarusian corporate farms. The results suggest targeting governmental support at grain and milk production. In this case, 4.14 trillion Belarusian roubles of subsidies increase the overall profit of the sample farms by 1.46 trillion. In the case of targeting, the farms with higher overall efficiency are more sensitive to the support and are able to absorb larger amount of subsidies. The opposite is true in the absence of targeting.
on-line, PDF document (in English). Alternative access: PDF file on IAMO site.
213. Measuring institutional progress on Russian dairy farms (case of the Moscow oblast) CD publ.

Dynamics and risk, virtue of directional distance functions. June 28-29, 2010: 3rd Halle workshop on efficiency and productivity analysis. Halle (Saale), Germany

The estimates of internal transaction costs (ITC) using data of 1998 and 20052007 from Moscow oblast corporate farms are presented. Compared to (198), several minor bugs are found and fixed in calculations. Both theoretical and empirical models are revised so to make them simpler and implying conditions for stronger estimates. Absence of significantly positive institutional changes is supported, whereas in short run (2005-2009) there is an evidence of negative changes. It is confirmed that larger farms face larger ITC. The influence of ITC on allocative efficiency is found negative, except 1998 when the results are indefinite. Higher technical efficiency implies higher ITC.
Access: on-line,
PDF document (in English). Alternative access: PDF file on IAMO site.
229. Subsidies allocation on Belarusian corporate farms publ.

Izvestia Timiryazevskoi sel'skokhoziaistvennoi akademii: Special issue, 2010, №7, pp.50-61.

17 Iryna Kazakevich
A journal version of  (212).
on-line, PDF document (in English).

Mathematical methods applied to food security analysis: methodological issues


Development of AIC in the context of food security (proceedings of VIII international scientific and practical conference, September 9-10, 2010) / Ed. by V.G. Gusakov. Minsk: Institute for System research,, 2010. – p. 206-213.

21 Ivan Obolentsev
Mathematical models that are used in food security studies are reviewed. The methodologies are suggested applicable to unsolved problems related to food security, such as estimation of comparative competitiveness of a national agricultural sector, forecasting of production and consumption balance of food resources, modeling relations between food supplying branches and other sectors of national economy, modeling international food and agricultural resources exchange, development of ecology-economic models, modeling optimal governmental support. 
on-line, PDF document (in Russian).

System dynamics of institutional evolution


System modeling of social and economic processes: Proceedings of the 34th international scientific seminar, Svetlogorsk, Kaliningrad region, September 26-October 1, 2011 / V.G. Grebennikov, I.N. Shchepina, V.N. Eitingon, eds. Voronezh, Publishing centre of Voronezh state university, 2011, vol. 2, p.135-137.

A brief report on a method of reproducing institutional evolution by means of a simple system dynamics model. The regimes are found in which institutions can co-exist that generate different transaction costs burdens depending on economic activity scale.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
241. Improving corporate farm subsidizing publ. Agrarian economics, 2011, №9, p.2-13. 33 Iryna Kazakevich
The paper delivers the results of (212) to Belarusian and Russian readers.
Access: libraries only (in Russian).
244. Modeling institutional evolution: theoretical background and  results publ. Institutional economics: progress, teaching, applications: Proceedings of the International conference. Issue 2. Round table. Institutional pre-conditions of raising investment activity of Russian business / State university of management. Moscow: GUU, 2001. - pp. 195-204. 22  
The system dynamics model of growing economy consisting of several populations characterized by the population-specific dependence of transaction costs and social inequality on economic activity scale indicators is studied. It is found that such model reproduces basic characteristics of competition between different institutional settings, like co-existence of different settings (particularly, infinitely long existence of settings which are strictly worse than their competitors), faster growth of the worst setting in the short-term period, break-even (catastrophical) population changes of settings.
on-line, PDF document (in Russian)
248.  Elaborating axiomatic framework for modeling global long-term economic dynamics publ. Nikonov lectures - 2011: Globalization and agricultural economy of Russia: trends, strategic opportunities and risks. Moscow: VIAPI, Encyclopedia of Russian villages, 2011. – p. 3-5. 8  
ДFor the purpose of understanding the nature of Kondratiev waves it is suggested to represent the long-term dynamics of gross production as a random value, which is a sum of four independent components: purely random, trend, effect of the lagged values and regulation.
on-line, PDF document (in Russian)
251. Application of stochastic programming to risk management on a corporate farm publ. Collection of students' scientific papers: Issue 17. Moscow: MTAA publ., 2011. – p.258-260. 4 M. Belyaletdinova
The paper presents the experience of developing a stochastic two-stage model of one-year production program of a dairy corporate farm located in the Moscow oblast, which secures feasibility of the plan under weather conditions of two worst years actually observed.
libraries only (in Russian).
252. Estimation of probability of insolvency of a corporation by means of simulation modeling publ. Collection of students' scientific papers: Issue 17. Moscow: MTAA publ., 2011. – p.261-263. 4 I. Gareva
A mathematical model of optimal debt service of a corporate farm is proposed allowing for re-financing the debt. Simulations on this model make it possible to estimate probability of insolvency.
Access: libraries only (in Russian).
253. Mathematical simulation in management of investment attraction of agro-industrial complex inter-net Nauchny zhurnal KubGAU [Scientific Journal of Kuban state agrarian university], №76(02), 2012. – http://ej.kubagro.ru/2012/02/pdf/10.pdf 13 A.S. Arkhipova
A set of routines is developed for decision support systems in the area of state budget financing of activities, which are aimed at improving competitiveness of agro-industrial complex in financial markets via reducing investment risks. Estimated  the parameters of the state support for a set of projects recommended for implementation in the Krasnodar region.
Access: on-line, PDF document of the journal site (in Russian). UDC 330.45:336.648.8.
254. Long waves of gross grain yields: what is the cause? publ. Ekonomika sel'skogo khoziaistva Rossii, 2012, №2, p.52-57. 11  
An econometric model is developed and econometrically justified that explains long waves of economic conjuncture, which show up in total yields of grain on the territory of the former USSR, with presence of lagged negative feedback in making investment decisions.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian). UDC [338.12.015+338.12.017]:633.1:330.46.
257. A production frontier model of Russian agriculture publ. Economic problems of modernization and innovation development of agro-industrial complex: Proceedings of IV All-Russian Congress of agricultural economists, October 27-28, 2011. Moscow: MTAA publ., 2011, vol.2, p.329-333. 13  
Non-parametric production frontier models of Russian corporate farms, family farms and household plots are developed using regional (oblast) level data. Price growth is found to stimulate production on household plots to a larger extent than on corporate farms. Soaring grain prices are able to cause decreasing production of other agricultural outputs. Additional input of mineral fertilizers, compared to fixed assets, stimulates larger capital value growth on corporate farms (per rouble of input). Family farms are the best place to capitalize agricultural land, while corporate farms demonstrate advantages in capitalizing cattle.
Because of numerous publisher's flaws, please use the author's version of the paper rather than the published one. Thank you.

on-line, PDF document (in Russian). UDC 338.43.001:631.15:658.589.
261. Agrarian projects risk indicators estimation by means of the simulation modeling publ. Modern science intensive technologies: Regional supplement. 2012. Issue 3. P.5-9. 11 A.S. Arkhipova
The methodology of simulation of variational series of NPV and IRR distribution attributed to the group of projects exposed to the same risk influence is developed. The results allow making decisions on investments, forms and
amounts of government support of investment risk depreciation in agro-industrial complex.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian, on the journal site). UDK 330.45:336.648.8.
264. Prediction of investor's behaviour in presence of the state support publ. XVII Nikonov lectures: Informatization in AIC: present situation, trends and outlook. Moscow, Encyclopedia of Russian villages, 2012. – p.113-115. 8 A.S. Arkhipova
The article follows earlier publications [253, 261]. It is suggested to predict the investor's reaction on state support using G. Markowitz model enriched with real project share variables. The data for this modified Markowitz model are generated by the simulation model of the cash flows of interrelated projects.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
265. Simulation modeling in the information system of projects risk management publ. Izvestia of Timiryazev agricultural academy, 2012, №5, p.18-28. 24 A.S. Arkhipova
The possibility of computer simulations application is argued to satisfying the information demand of investment portfolio risk analysis in the cases when real projects shares are included in the portfolio. The necessary data set, characterizing the projects risk, is made available by the simulation cash flow model, which generates variational series of each project's NPV and IRR.  The empirical base of the model consists of the project feasibility study materials, data on project-specific prices variation and aggregated price indices. The instrumental methods, based on the proposed model, allow making decisions about capital investment as well as about forms and amount of state support aimed at improving investment attractiveness of the agro-industrial complex.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
280. Modeling the interaction between the corporate and family sectors of Russian agriculture publ. Proceedings of MTAA: Issue. 284. Moscow.: MTAA Publ., 2012, p.99-102. 4  
By means of a set of non-parametric production frontier models competitive advantages of family farms on Russian agricultural land market are revealed, while corporate farms experience advantages on herd market.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian). UDC [631.115.9+631.115.1]001.57.
281. Modeling the multi-stage investment decision making process in a corporate farm publ. INFRA-M publ., 2013. – 142 p. 216 V.N. Sakharova,
N.A. Kubyshina
The monograph studies the case of scientific substantiation of such a middle-term plan of investment, financial and operational activities of a corporate farm that ensures low sensitivity to risks and uncertainties. For this purpose, a new approach to agricultural producers' operations research is introduced that is applicable in the situation of scarce input data. This approach is based on a multi-stage linear programming model, which makes use of the empirical distribution of probabilities of uncertain parameters (so called ED-model). The solution of the ED-model is an optimal program which remains feasible under any random conditions taken from the set of the conditions that have been actually observed in a given set of years in the past. The model runs under a limited number of scenarios, which are represented by the parameters for which the empirical distribution is not accessible. The overall approach ensures better control over risk and uncertainty factors in comparison to other approaches that could be implemented subject to the available input data.
on-line, chargeable (in Russian). Restricted access (some browsers are not supported). UDC 65.012.122:631.152.2.
283. Operations research applied to attracting investments in agro-industrial complex publ. Izvestia of Timiryazev Academy, 2013, Special issue, p.44-57. 30 A.S. Arkhipova
The possibility of computer simulations application is argued to satisfying the information demand of investment portfolio risk analysis in the cases when the shares of interrelated real investment projects are included in the portfolio. A complex of cash flow simulation model and portfolio simulation model is developed that makes it possible to approach statistic characteristics of economic effect of investment projects and estimate expectation value of investments in real projects in the presence of governmental support. The empirical base of the model consists of the project feasibility study materials, data on project-specific prices variation and aggregated price indices. The instrumental methods, based on the proposed model, allow making decisions about capital investment as well as about forms and amount of state support aimed at improving investment attractiveness of the agro-industrial complex.
on-line, PDF document (in English).
291. Estimating managerial transaction costs on dairy farms in the Moscow region publ. Izvestia of Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, 2014, №3, p.120-138. 41  
The author's methodology of econometric estimation of managerial transaction costs (MTC) per unit of output is applied to testing the following hypotheses: about non-decreasing МТС during the periods 1998 to 2007 and 2005 to 2007; about their positive correlation with farm size and with technical efficiency; about their negative correlation with allocative inefficiency. None of these hypotheses are rejected. The evidence of regressive evolution of internal farm institutions during the period 2005-2007 is found. MTC downgrade the competitiveness of the studied farms. However, large potential of decreasing MTC can be found in relatively small number of farms, thus implying limited economic motivation to restructuring aimed at cutting MTC down.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English).
305. An econometric model of motor road and railroad  lengths in the USA  publ. System modeling of social and economic processes: Summaries of the 38th international scientific seminar / V.G. Grebennikov, I.N. Shchepina, eds. Voronezh, Voronezh State University, 2015. - P.114. 1  
A summary of the presentation (326).
the summaries from the seminar are accessible on-line as PDF both in English and Russian.
306. Consequences of unification of agricultural policy of the Eurasian economic space  publ. Agricultural policy of the modern Russia: scientific and methodological aspects and the strategy of implementation. Moscow: Nikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics; Encyclopedia of Russian Villages, 2015. - P. 57-59. 7  
Expected changes are outlined in the agricultural markets of the three originating members of the Eurasian Economic Space (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia) in the case of adoption a unified agricultural policy. These results are obtained from a partial equilibrium model of these markets based on the code of EPACIS project.
 on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
307. Stochastic multi-stage ED-models: theory and applications  publ. Proceedings of MTAA: Issue 285. Moscow.: MTAA publ., 2014. - P.202-204. 4  
Experience of practical application of stochastic multistage ED-models (empirical distribution models) is discussed. ED-models are found to be less demanding to source data, less expensive in use and secure a higher level of risk protection in comparison to available alternatives.
Access:  on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
312. Choosing proxies of resources and needs for the model of surface transportation networks length in the USA  publ. Strategic planning and growth of enterprises. Section 4: Proceedings of the 17th all-Russian symposium. Moscow, April 12-13, 2016 / G.B. Kleiner, ed. Moscow: CEMI RAS< 2016. – P.183-185. 5  
For the purpose of the model presented in the paper (315), investment as a proxy for the aggregated resource and linear combination of population and GNP as a proxy for needs are tried. The results do not surpass those obtained with GNP as a proxy for the resource and population as a proxy for needs.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
313. Incomplete econometric models applied to infratrajectories   publ. International scientific conference «Lomonosov lectures-2016»: Economic science and the progress of scientific schools in universities: The summaries. Moscow, Economic faculty of Lomonosov MSU, 2015. – P.241. 2  
Advantages of maximum entropy estimation are outlined in the context of econometric modeling of infratrajectories.
 on-line (the collection of summaries is available at the site of the Economic faculty of MSU), PDF document (in Russian).
315. Econometric Analysis of Expansion of Surface Transportation Networks  publ. Economics and mathematical methods, 2016, vol.52, issue 2. – P.60-74. 31  
A disequilibrium theoretical model of long-term economic dynamics, which considers availability of an aggregated resource and satisfaction of needs in specific outputs, is tested against the expansion of surface transportation networks. The 1871–2013 time series of the length of the USA railroads, highways, pawed roads, surfaced roads and total automobile roads, some of which lack numerous observations, are used for the empirical testing. Two incomplete non-linear auto-regression empirical specifications are applied, which differ in the lag duration (one year and 13 years). The both are estimated using generalized maximum entropy (GME) procedure, which is enriched with the endogenous supporting values for the parameter estimates. For the purpose of testing null hypotheses a non-parametric criterion of statistical indiscriminability of two series (reference and compared) is developed, using an area of intersect of polygons of empirical distributions as a critical value. The empirical specification assuming one year lag supports the proposed theoretical model. The parameter estimates do not support the influence of Schumpeterian technological structure changes on the extension of the transportation networks. The possible reason is the fixed correspondence between a given type of the network and a certain technical structure, which is assumed by the empirical specification. The specification with the 13 year lag is rejected, thus giving no evidence for the significance of the investment lag for the transportation network expansion processes.
 on-line (either paid or for subscribers), PDF document (in Russian).
320. Economic and Mathematical Modeling of EAEC Agri-food Policy  pre-print РАНХиГС. М., 2016. 126 E. Shishkina
The paper presents the economic and mathematical analysis of the likely consequences of the transition to a single agri-food policy in the three countries EAEC - Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Use any copyrighted modification of economic-mathematical model of partial equilibrium EPACIS, which eliminates the drawbacks associated with alternative solutions and computational problems. The expediency of a conservative approach to integration processes in the EAEC, consisting in the integration of primary markets, the integration of the least prone to stress; the priority of improving the competitiveness of inefficient sectors to the integration of markets; ready to suspend the acts aimed at deepening integration, the detection of adverse effects.
 on-line (on the SSRN site), PDF document (in Russian).
321. The methodology for modelling agricultural and food policy in the framework of euro-Azian integration publ. Izvestia of Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, 2016, №3, p.106-126.  36  
A mathematical model for modeling agricultural and food policy in the core countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), namely Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, is developed on the basis of earlier EPACIS project, which originates in Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO). Workarounds are provided for some imperfections of the original model that expose themselves during simulations that allow for bilateral international trade, namely presence of multiple equilibrium solutions, large systematic bias and occasional computational problems. The model outcome is analyzed for the scenario of equal average subsidies per unit of each output in the three countries (separate for direct subsidies, input subsidies and the support of agriculture besides subsidizing producers). The scenario assumes securing the gross amount of subsidies of each type across the three countries, allowing their burden to be redistributed from one country to another. The major scenario effects are the growth of foreign trade turnover in all three countries (e.g. Russia's import from two other countries grows by 3,3% and from the rest of the world by 4,5%, while its export grows by 6,8 and 13,2% correspondingly) and growth of state support of agriculture in Kazakhstan by 62,6%. Hence, international traders will promote this scenario, while the government of Kazakhstan will tend to hamper it. Other actors, including consumers and producers in all the three countries and governments of Belarus and Russia receive marginal effects. On this reason, they will stay neutral thereupon the scenario is about to be implemented. 
 on-line, PDF document (in Russian).
326. An econometric model of motoroad and railroad lengths in the USA publ. System modeling of social and economic processes: Summaries of the 38th international scientific seminar / V.G. Grebennikov, I.N. Shchepina, eds. Voronezh, Voronezh State University, 2016. - P.402-405. 6  
For the purpose of verification of a disequilibrium theoretical model of traffic networks expansion considering availability of an aggregated resource and consumption of traffic services, an incomplete (in terms of factors taken into account) non-linear autoregressive econometric model of motor and rail road lengths is developed for the period 1871-2013 (the data on motor roads are available from 1904 on). Parameters of the model are estimated by means of the general maximum entropy (GME) estimator. The results fit into the theoretical model. An investment lag and a technological structure are both found insignificant.
the published proceedings (in Russian) are available on-line in PDF.
328. Simulation modelling of regulating the wheat market publ. Nikonov lectures - 2016: Scientific and technological development of AIC: problems and outlook. Moscow, 2016. P.168-171. 7  
The paper is aimed at the development and application of a computer toolset for the systems analysis applied to the Russian grain markets. The systems analysis problem is set as elaboration of the cause-and-effect relations in the wheat market. Solving it is particularly necessary in order to correctly set the borders of the price corridor for the purpose of commodity and purchase interventions.
on-line, PDF document (in Russian).

© N. Svetlov, 2006-2017.
January 4, 2017.